Transmission of COVID-19 in Nightlife, Household, and Health Care Settings in Tokyo, Japan, in 2020.

Importance: There have been few studies on the heterogeneous interconnection of COVID-19 outbreaks occurring in different social settings using robust, surveillance epidemiological data. Objectives: To describe the characteristics of COVID-19 transmission within different social settings and to evaluate settings associated with onward transmission to other settings. Design, Setting, and Participants: This is a case series study of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases in Tokyo between January 23 and December 5, 2020, when vaccination was not yet implemented. Using epidemiological investigation data collected by public health centers, epidemiological links were identified and classified into 7 transmission settings: imported, nightlife, dining, workplace, household, health care, and other. Main Outcomes and Measures: The number of cases per setting and the likelihood of generating onward transmissions were compared between different transmission settings. Results: Of the 44 054 confirmed COVID-19 cases in this study, 25 241 (57.3%) were among male patients, and the median (IQR) age of patients was 36 (26-52) years. Transmission settings were identified in 13 122 cases, including 6768 household, 2733 health care, and 1174 nightlife cases. More than 6600 transmission settings were detected, and nightlife (72 of 380 [18.9%]; P < .001) and health care (119 [36.2%]; P < .001) settings were more likely to involve 5 or more cases than dining, workplace, household, and other settings. Nightlife cases appeared in the earlier phase of the epidemic, while household and health care cases appeared later. After adjustment for transmission setting, sex, age group, presence of symptoms, and wave, household and health care cases were less likely to generate onward transmission compared with nightlife cases (household: adjusted odds ratio, 0.03; 95% CI, 0.02-0.05; health care: adjusted odds ratio, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.41-0.79). Household settings were associated with intergenerational transmission, while nonhousehold settings mainly comprised transmission between the same age group. Among 30 932 cases without identified transmission settings, cases with a history of visiting nightlife establishments were more likely to generate onward transmission to nonhousehold settings (adjusted odds ratio, 5.30 [95% CI, 4.64-6.05]; P < .001) than those without such history. Conclusions and Relevance: In this case series study, COVID-19 cases identified in nightlife settings were associated with a higher likelihood of spreading COVID-19 than household and health care cases. Surveillance and interventions targeting nightlife settings should be prioritized to disrupt COVID-19 transmission, especially in the early stage of an epidemic.

Seroprevalence of four endemic human coronaviruses and, reactivity and neutralization capability against SARS-CoV-2 among children in the Philippines.

Four endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV), HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-HKU1, and HCoV-OC43, are closely related to SARS-CoV-2. These coronaviruses are known to infect humans living in temperate areas, including children under 5 years old; however, the seroprevalence of four HCoVs among children in tropical areas, including the Philippines, remains unclear. This study aimed to assess the prevalence of antibodies against four HCoVs and to determine the reactivity and neutralization of these antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 among children in the Philippines. A total of 315 serum samples collected from 2015 to 2018, before the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, in Biliran island, Philippines, were tested for the presence of antibodies against four HCoVs and SARS-CoV-2 using recombinant spike ectodomain proteins by IgG-enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Reactivity to and neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 were also investigated. The seroprevalence of the four HCoVs was 63.8% for HCoV-229E, 71.4% for HCoV-NL63, 76.5% for HCoV-HKU1, and 83.5% for HCoV-OC43 by ELISA. Age group analysis indicated that seropositivity to all HCoVs reached 80% by 2-3 years of age. While 69/315 (21.9%) of the samples showed reactive to SARS-CoV-2, almost no neutralization against SARS-CoV-2 was detected using neutralization assay. Reactivity of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 spike protein obtained by ELISA may not correlate with neutralization capability.

Incidence and length of outbreak period of COVID-19 and population density in comparison with seasonal influenza in Japan.

Objectives: There is no consensus regarding the impact of population density on the transmission of respiratory viral infections such as COVID-19 and seasonal influenza. Our study aimed to determine the correlation between population density and the incidence and duration of COVID-19 transmission. Methods: Publicly available data for confirmed COVID-19 cases in Japan, from January 2020 through November 2021, were retrospectively collected. The average numbers of seasonal influenza cases reported in the national database from 2013-2014 through 2019-2020 were identified. Using data for COVID-19 and seasonal influenza population density and incidence rates (age-adjusted), the Pearson's correlation coefficient was determined. Results: A significant positive correlation between log population density and length of outbreak period was observed for COVID-19 (r = 0.734; p < 0.001) but not for seasonal influenza. Additionally, a significant linear correlation was observed between population density and age-adjusted incidence rate for COVID-19 (r = 0.692; p < 0.001) but not for seasonal influenza. Conclusions: In Japan, areas with high population density experienced a prolonged and more intense COVID-19 outbreak compared with areas with low population density. This was not observed with seasonal influenza, suggesting that public health measures against COVID-19 should be tailored according to population density.

Epidemiological Factors Associated with COVID-19 Clusters in Medical and Social Welfare Facilities.

The characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) clusters in medical and social welfare facilities and the factors associated with cluster size are still not yet fully understood. We reviewed COVID-19 cases in Japan identified from January 15 to April 30, 2020 and analyzed the factors associated with cluster size in medical and social welfare facilities. In this study, COVID-19 clusters were identified in 56 medical and 34 social welfare facilities. The number of cases in those facilities peaked after the peak of the general population. The duration of occurrence of new cases in clusters was positively correlated with the number of cases in both types of facilities (rho = 0.44, P < 0.001; and rho = 0.69, P < 0.001, respectively). However, the number of days between the first case in a prefecture and the onset of clusters was negatively correlated with the number of cases only in clusters in social welfare facilities (rho = - 0.4, P = 0.004). Our results suggest that COVID-19 cases in those facilities were prevalent in the latter phase of the disease's community transmission, although the underlying mechanisms for such a trend could differ between medical and social welfare facilities.

Integration of publicly available case-based data for real-time coronavirus disease 2019 risk assessment, Japan.

In response to the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan, a national COVID-19 cluster taskforce (comprising governmental and nongovernmental experts) was established to support the country's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare in conducting daily risk assessment. The assessment was carried out using established infectious disease surveillance systems; however, in the initial stages of the pandemic these were not sufficient for real-time risk assessment owing to limited accessibility, delay in data entry and inadequate case information. Also, local governments were publishing anonymized data on confirmed COVID-19 cases on their official web sites as daily press releases. We developed a unique database for nationwide real-time risk assessment that included these case lists from local government web sites and integrated all case data into a standardized format. The database was updated daily and checked systematically to ensure comprehensiveness and quality. Between 15 January 2020 and 15 June 2021, 776 459 cases were logged in the database, allowing for analysis of real-time risk from the pandemic. This semi-automated database was used in daily risk assessments, and to evaluate and update control measures to prevent community transmission of COVID-19 in Japan. The data were reported almost every week to the Japanese Government Advisory Panel on COVID-19 for public health responses.

Prolonged shedding of infectious viruses with haplotype switches of SARS-CoV-2 in an immunocompromised patient.

A concern has been raised that the persistent COVID-19 infection in an immunocompromised host can be the source of the SARS-CoV-2 variants. This is the case of a 61-year-old man in complete remission of a follicular lymphoma after six cycles of rituximab and bendamustine with additional two cycles of rituximab completed eight months prior to the episode of COVID-19 pneumonia. The patient's respiratory failure was long-lasting, and required mechanical ventilation until day 75. Acquired immunity tested negative throughout the observational period. The viral RNA was detectable until day 100 while the infectious virus was isolated until day 79. Seven haplotypes were identified and the non-synonymous mutations accumulated in the spike gene which included E484Q and S494P. In the management of COVID-19 cases with suppressed immune statuses, initial evaluation of existing immunity and monitoring for infectiousness throughout the clinical course including the convalescent stage may be necessary.

Secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during the first two waves in Japan: Demographic characteristics and overdispersion.

OBJECTIVES: Super-spreading events caused by overdispersed secondary transmission are crucial in the transmission of COVID-19. However, the exact level of overdispersion, demographics, and other factors associated with secondary transmission remain elusive. In this study, we aimed to elucidate the frequency and patterns of secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Japan. METHODS: We analyzed 16,471 cases between January 2020 and August 2020. We generated the number of secondary cases distribution and estimated the dispersion parameter (k) by fitting the negative binomial distribution in each phase. The frequencies of the secondary transmission were compared by demographic and clinical characteristics, calculating the odds ratio using logistic regression models. RESULTS: We observed that 76.7% of the primary cases did not generate secondary cases with an estimated dispersion parameter k of 0.23. The demographic patterns of primary-secondary cases differed between phases, with 20-69 years being the predominant age group. There were higher proportions of secondary transmissions among older individuals, symptomatic patients, and patients with 2 days or more between onset and confirmation. CONCLUSIONS: The study showed the estimation of the frequency of secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the characteristics of people who generated the secondary transmission.

Proactive Engagement of the Expert Meeting in Managing the Early Phase of the COVID-19 Epidemic, Japan, February-June 2020.

To deal with the risk of emerging diseases with many unknowns, close and timely collaboration and communication between science experts and policymakers are crucial to developing and implementing an effective science-based intervention strategy. The Expert Meeting, an ad hoc medical advisory body, was established in February 2020 to advise Japan's COVID-19 Response Headquarters. The group played an important role in the policymaking process, promoting timely situation awareness and developing science-based proposals on interventions that were promptly reflected in government actions. However, this expert group may have been overly proactive in taking on the government's role in crisis management. For the next stage of managing the coronavirus disease pandemic and future pandemics, the respective roles of the government and its advisory bodies need to be clearly defined. Leadership and strategic risk communication by the government are key.

Facilitating the deployment of Japanese human resources for responding global outbreaks of emerging and Re-emerging infectious diseases: A cross-sectional study.

INTRODUCTION: In response to global outbreaks of infectious diseases, the need for support from organizations such as the World Health Organization Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is increasing. Identifying the obstacles and support needs for applicants could increase GOARN deployments from Japan. METHODS: This cross-sectional study involved a web-based, self-administered questionnaire survey targeting Japanese participants in the GOARN Tier 1.5 training workshop, held in Tokyo in December 2019. RESULTS: All 47 Japanese participants in the workshop responded to the survey. Most responders were male and in their 30s and 40s. Participants specialized in case management (42.6%), infection prevention and control (25.6%), epidemiology and surveillance (19.1%). Only two participants (4.6%) had experienced a GOARN deployment. Their motivations for joining the GOARN training workshop were "Desire to be part of an international emerging infectious disease response team" (44.6%), "Interest in making an international contribution" (19.1%), and "Interest in working for the Japanese government in the field of international infectious diseases" (14.9%). Obstacles to GOARN deployments were "Making time for deployments" (45.7%) and "Lack of required professional skills and knowledge" (40.4%). The support needs for GOARN deployments constituted "Periodic simulation training" (51.1%), "Financial support during deployments" (44.7%), and "Technical support for deployments" (40.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Our study revealed the obstacles and support needs of Japanese candidates for GOARN deployment. Making time and upskilling for GOARN deployment were the main obstacles. More practical training (like GOARN Tier 2.0) with other supports are needed. The national framework is desirable to realize these supports.

Inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 by Catechins from Green Tea.

Green tea extracts effectively inactivated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in vitro in a dose-dependent manner. Ten-fold serially diluted solutions of catechin mixture reagent from green tea were mixed with the viral culture fluid at a volume ratio of 9:1, respectively, and incubated at room temperature for 5 min. The solution of 10 mg/mL catechin reagent reduced the viral titer by 4.2 log and 1.0 mg/mL solution by one log. Pre-infection treatment of cells with the reagent alone did not affect viral growth. In addition, cells treated with only the reagent were assayed for host cell viability using the WST-8 system, and almost no host cell damage by the treatment was observed. These findings suggested that the direct treatment of virus with the reagent before inoculation decreased the viral activity and that catechins might have the potential to suppress SARSCoV-2 infection.

Roles of Children and Adolescents in COVID-19 Transmission in the Community: A Retrospective Analysis of Nationwide Data in Japan.

Background: Roles of children and adolescents in spreading coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the community is not fully understood. Methods: We analyzed the data of 7,758 children and adolescents with COVID-19 and characteristics of secondary transmission generated by these cases using case information published by local governments. Ratio of pediatric and adolescent cases generating secondary transmission was calculated for various social settings. Results: The incidence of COVID-19 was 24.8 cases per 105 population aged between 0 and 9 years, and 59.2 among those aged between 10 and 19 years, which was lower than that among individuals of all age groups (79.6 per 105 population) between January 15 and October 31, 2020. The proportion of cases generating secondary cases was 8.3% among infants and young children in nursery schools and kindergartens, 16% among children and adolescents attending primary schools, 34% among those attending junior high schools, 43% among those attending high schools, 31% among those attending professional training colleges, and 24% in those attending universities. Households were the most common setting for secondary transmission. Conclusion: The risk of generating secondary cases might be limited among pediatric and adolescent cases with COVID-19, especially in settings outside households. Effectiveness of traditional mitigation measures (e.g., school closures) to suppress COVID-19 transmissions should be carefully evaluated.

Relationship of Test Positivity Rates with COVID-19 Epidemic Dynamics.

Detection and isolation of infected people are believed to play an important role in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Some countries conduct large-scale screenings for testing, whereas others test mainly people with high prior probability of infection such as showing severe symptoms and/or having an epidemiological link with a known or suspected case or cluster of cases. However, what a good testing strategy is and whether the difference in testing strategy shows a meaningful, measurable impact on the COVID-19 epidemic remain unknown. Here, we showed that patterns of association between effective reproduction number (Rt) and test positivity rate can illuminate differences in testing situation among different areas, using global and local data from Japan. This association can also evaluate the adequacy of current testing systems and what information is captured in COVID-19 surveillance. The differences in testing systems alone cannot predict the results of epidemic containment efforts. Furthermore, monitoring test positivity rates and severe case proportions among the nonelderly can predict imminent case count increases. Monitoring test positivity rates in conjunction with the concurrent Rt could be useful to assess and strengthen public health management and testing systems and deepen understanding of COVID-19 epidemic dynamics.

Familial Clusters of Coronavirus Disease in 10 Prefectures, Japan, February-May 2020.

The overall coronavirus disease secondary attack rate (SAR) in family members was 19.0% in 10 prefectures of Japan during February 22-May 31, 2020. The SAR was lower for primary cases diagnosed early, within 2 days after symptom onset. The SAR of asymptomatic primary cases was 11.8%.

Viruses That Can and Cannot Coexist With Humans and the Future of SARS-CoV-2.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has become a worldwide pandemic. Many projections concerning the outbreak, such as the estimated number of cases and deaths in upcoming months, have been made available. However, what happens to the virus after the pandemic subsides has not been fully explored. In this article, we discuss the ways that past and present human viruses have emerged via zoonotic transmission, the mechanisms that they have acquired the ability for effective transmission among humans, the process to sustain a chain of transmission to coexist with humans, and the factors important for complete containment leading to eradication of viruses. These aspects of viral disease may provide clues for the future path that SARS-CoV-2 might take in relation to human infection.

Clusters of Coronavirus Disease in Communities, Japan, January-April 2020.

We analyzed 3,184 cases of coronavirus disease in Japan and identified 61 case-clusters in healthcare and other care facilities, restaurants and bars, workplaces, and music events. We also identified 22 probable primary case-patients for the clusters; most were 20-39 years of age and presymptomatic or asymptomatic at virus transmission.